CS2 Case Opening EV Calculator
Enter your case cost, how many you plan to open, and estimated item values — then see the true expected value per case, knife probability, and how many cases you need to break even. Uses official Valve drop rates.
Case Settings
Slide to simulate 1–1,000 case openings
Current Steam Market price for the case
Average across all knives/gloves in the case
Average Covert skin price across all wear conditions
StatTrak Items Only
StatTrak drops at ~10% of each tier's rate
Expected Value Summary
Total Spend
¤369.00
cases + keys
EV per Case
¤1.10
vs ¤3.69 cost
Total EV
¤109.56
100 cases
P(1+ Knife)
22.92 %
in 100 opens
P(1+ Covert)
47.38 %
in 100 opens
Expected Knives
0.260
on average
Break-Even Cases
4
for 1 knife EV
Break-even analysis: Opening 4 cases would cost ¤14.76 total (cases + keys). At that point, the expected value of your drops matches your spend.
Wear Condition Distribution
Approximate distribution across all drops. Expected counts based on 100 cases.
Official Valve Drop Rates
| Rarity | Base Rate | StatTrak Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 7.99% |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1.60% |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 0.32% |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 0.064% |
| Rare Special (Knife / Gloves) | 0.26% | 0.026% |
StatTrak items drop at approximately 10% of the base rate for each eligible tier. Key cost is fixed at $2.49. Rates are per-case and independent.
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